Welcome to our weekly brief. Here you will find an overview of main events and news from last week and expected events for week 51. 

Fundamentals and expected events: week 51

Crypto markets: The latest fears prompted by the new COVID-19 variant pushed all global market as well as crypto markets down again. BTC dropped during the weekend below $46,000 and the suffering continues as the cryptocurrency failed again at $47,000. Similar to Bitcoin, most altcoins are also in the red today. Ethereum has lost another 4.5% of value and now sits beneath $3,800. The second-largest cryptocurrency has been stuck below the crucial $4,000 line for almost a week now.

Stock and commodity markets: Stock markets headed into the red last week. But the mood in the markets remains jittery even during this morning’s new lockdown in Europe, where the pandemic situation continues to worsen. Markets then seemed unmoved by news from the US, where Senator Manchin announced that he would not support Biden’s $2 trillion welfare package. Stocks in Asia are losing ground early in the week, as are Chinese indices and European indices. Oil is trading at lower levels after news of the restrictions and lockdown from the Netherlands. Industrial metals also fell. Gold is trading in slight gains, while other precious metals are down.

Important events: In the past week, several central banks have held meetings: the ECB, the Fed, the Bank of England, but also the Bank of Japan, Norges and others. While some took a more hawkish stance than others, all focused more on upside risks to inflation and pandemic fears were thus pushed aside. At the global level, this set a new trend of tightening monetary conditions, which were quickly and dramatically eased with the onset of the pandemic. The CNB, which meets this Wednesday, will certainly not deviate from the hawkish trend. A deterioration in overall market sentiment can be expected not only due to price rises but also to the unfavourable development of the pandemic, which has resulted in new and tighter government restrictions in several countries.

Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 51

Crypto Fear and Greed index is 25, extreme fear.

BTC/USD

BTC is taking its time. It is enough to break the key RSI trendline if BTC gets above 48k and confirms the 50EMA breakout. Orders in the hundreds of BTC have accumulated around the 42k level. This suggests that no similar move may occur now, not many traders expect it. Overall, it is shaping up to be a swing move up. Some alts are looking very interesting to enter against BTC as well. The closer we are to the 50EMA, the more likely for a breakout. Resistance at 48k (Key TL 1), 50.5k (Key TL 2) and 52k does not appear to be an insurmountable barrier right now. The next 2 days will decide whether we test 42k or head up towards a breakout. A break of the Key RSI TL is now the key for initial reason for optimism.

DOGE/USD

DOGE has already made one of the key moves to the 0.1616 level, which ended with a pin bar on the 4H TF. The first sign that we can expect a more significant move up very soon. The bounce to 0.2216, that took place before this pin bar, is also an important signal. DOGE is now just below the 50EMA and above the key trend line. A test of 0.165 is still possible. This move would also mean a retest of the key RSI TL. We should not break the RSI TL, that would be a negative signal. 0.1744 is now the most important resistance for the next move up.

ETH/USD

The whole structure of the ETH chart is pretty torn up due to market manipulations. However, in such a situation it is important to watch the price action. Engulfing and then Pin bar are proof of that. The activity at the $3,700 price level for ETH is unmissable. The main RSI TL is just crying out for a breakout. The biggest resistance is now at $4146. Breaking the $4040 per ETH level is now key to make a move higher. What is positive is that the entire market is starting to come into alignment and what technical analysis suggests is very similar for most coins.

Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.