Welcome to our weekly brief. Here you will find an overview of main events and news from last week and expected events for week 49.
Fundamentals and expected events: week 49
Crypto markets: On December 4th, Bitcoin suffered its worst trading day since mid-May, as its price plunged to a two-month low of $42,000. Somewhat expectedly, this massive $16,000 crash in less than 24 hours led to a change in investors’ sentiment as the popular Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index went into “extreme fear” territory once again. As a result, BTC has retraced now to around $48,000, and its market capitalization is down to just over $900 billion and total of around $500 million left the market. The cryptocurrency market cap is now down by $120 billion.
Stock and commodity markets: Stock markets were somewhat “struggling” recently, negatively influenced mainly by new disappointing macro data and the fall of cryptocurrencies during weekend. Shares of China Evergrande fell after the company said there was no guarantee it would have enough funds to repay its debt. This unstability is now affecting the whole stock market. Tesla shares are down following news that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has opened an investigation into the automaker’s faulty solar panels. Oil is moving higher, while precious metals prices have fallen slightly. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments affect gold market sentiment. An improvement in the general “coronavirus mood” was following today’s comments from the US, where renowned medical expert Dr Fauci suggested that the new omicron mutation was unlikely to be as much of a threat as had been estimated following its discovery.
Important events: A week rich in data from the Czech economy awaits us. Monthly indicators from the real economy will arrive, as well as data from the labour market and inflation statistics. There are also important data on the foreign economic calendar, led by industrial production in Germany and inflation in the US. In the Central European region, the Polish central bank will decide on interest rate settings and inflation will come out in Hungary. The IMF on Friday urged the Fed to tighten monetary policy at a faster pace amid rising inflation risks.
Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 49
The total crypto market capitalization reached 2,403 trillion USD.
Bitcoin’s price is currently 49,090 USD.
Crypto Fear and Greed index is 16, extreme fear.
Last week’s prediction is 100% fulfilled. The break of the key RSI TL resulted in a correction to the level of $56781 per BTC and the close below this level triggered an avalanche of sell-offs that were not stopped even by the main trend line. We fell through the buy zone to the $40700 per BTC level. As mentioned last time, a close below 51k is not a good market signal. We see this as a good buy signal on Spot with a very tight SL. The TL that stretches from October 2020 is now key support. The $39.5K for BTC is now the tipping point between a bear market and a bull market. I now expect a bounce around 40k or so in the very short term given the bullish divergence on the 1D and 4H TF. The road to 80k is now thorny but by no means impossible. 56.4k is now collectively a key TL important resistance.
The unbelievable has come true! Doge saw the $0.13 level again, where a vigorous bounce occurred. One of those moments when wishes come true. This allowed Doge to pick up important energy for the next upward move. The 0.1940 price will now play an important role as resistance. Once broken, we could see the long awaited move up. As one of the few major coins to reach such a low price, the Doge could mean that the alts will see more significant moves upwards and the correction is over. Keep a close eye on the key RSI TL, it is now the most important.
ETH broke the key support at $4155 per ETH and a bigger correction did not take long. It was quite a ride, with ETH breaking what it could along the way. But what is very important is that ETH closed above key support and returned to the growth channel, which I consider a good signal for a further move higher. We have even broken and tested the key RSI TL in ETH already. So give ETH a run for its money and don’t stop, as long as ETH is acting like a champion there is a good chance the market will be in the same mood. 4250-4300 is now key resistance.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.