Welcome to our weekly brief. Here you will find an overview of main events and news from last week and expected events for week 48.
Fundamentals and expected events: week 48
Crypto markets: Since last Friday, when news broke about a new variant of the COVID-19 virus, the price of the primary cryptocurrency has been dropping down fast. It went from a daily high of over $59,000 to a low of $53,500 in a matter of hours, resulting in nearly $1 billion in liquidations on a daily scale for leveraged traders. The weekend saw quite high volatility again. However, today instead of going further south, BTC started to reclaim ground and jumped by more than $4,000. Consequently, it touched $58,000, but it has retraced slightly now to just over $57,000. The altcoins also went down hard with Bitcoin, but are now recovering at even a faster rate than the leader of the market.
Stock and commodity markets: The discovery of the omicron variant of covid-19, described by the World Health Organisation as ‘worrying’, has caused panic on the markets. In particular, air and sea passenger carriers are under more pressure with regard to the omicron, fearing a forced decline in travel interest. North Sea Brent crude oil collapsed nearly 12% on Friday in response to reports of omicron variant of coronavirus. However, global markets are now recovering fast. Oil already partially corrected Friday’s strong fall. Gold tried to slightly correct Friday’s drop in the morning, but it seems to be losing ground, probably in view of the strengthening dollar.
Important events: Tuesday will bring data on inflation in the eurozone, which may give a hint as to the spirit of the European Central Bank’s December meeting, Friday will bring important data from the US labour market, which will reveal how the US economy performed in November, and Tuesday will also see speeches by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Washington. World oil prices will come into the crosshairs of commodity investors due to the regular meeting of the OPEC+ oil producers’ cartel.
Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 48
The total crypto market capitalization reached 2,708 trillion USD.
Bitcoin’s price is currently 57,305 USD.
Crypto Fear and Greed index is 33, fear.
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As expected, BTC tested 50EMA and on the second test the bearish divergence did not even let it make contact with 50EMA. This resulted in a deeper drop to $53,400. Currently, BTC is under a lot of pressure after a nice move up to the key TL and the main TL. The bearish divergence on 4H doesn’t give us much hope for an immediate breakout. A correction to the $56,781 price level is in order with the caveat that above this price we are bullish and below this price we are bearish and a move to 54k or 51k may occur. A close below 51k would not be a good signal for a move up. The whole market has put in a move in a positive direction but that doesn’t mean much at the moment as the pressure on the price is high. Volume would help significantly, which is not appearing to a sufficient degree yet. HOWEVER, the overall view of an upward move is more bullish and is still very likely. Whether it’s now from 56k or 51k is not important, the target is the same “Up”.
Doge is going, but in the opposite direction than we would like… Doge has broken all the supports and reached the main support at $0.1944. There will very likely be a bounce all the way to the $0.23 price where Doge will have to fight all major resistances, which are made up of TLs and 200EMA. If we make it to the “Intermediate Box”, we’re on track to have a proper run. We don’t anticipate getting a buying opportunity around the $0.15 price point. The key to buying around the $0.15 price level is the main RSI TL. But it would be nice…
ETH is acting like a champion, and despite falling below the neckline of the C&H formation, below the 200EMA and the subsequent death cross, ETH is back above the 200EMA. Even ETH is not facing any bearish divergence on the 4H at the moment, so the move up is open. On any further correction, a bounce from $4,155 is key for further upside movement. The buy box below this price is in a larger range, so averaging the buy price is preferable. The main RSI TL is now the key for a further move up without a major correction. Positive information regarding the reduction of transaction fees on ETH by up to five times will also have a positive impact on the price, as this is what has been burning users the most in recent months.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.