Week 46 – Overview of fundamentals and markets

jordan, daily, week 46

Welcome to our weekly brief. Here you will find an overview of main events and news from last week and expected events for week 46. 

Fundamentals and expected events: week 46

Crypto markets: Following a few days of negative price developments, Bitcoin has finally taken off and challenged again the level of $66,000. Most altcoins are also slightly in the green, with Ethereum reclaiming $4,700 and SOL trading above $240. At the start of this week, the combined cryptocurrency market cap broke $3 trillion for the first time and thus set a new ATH. The crypto market as a whole has fluctuated heavily this year, crashing down to as low as $1.24 trillion in mid-July, only a few months before the new record.

Stock and commodity markets: European stock markets are slightly up at the start of the new week. The basic materials sector is not doing too well and the travel and hospitality sectors are the most heavily influenced again. Chinese macros this morning showed a slowdown in the growth momentum of the main indicators, but on the other hand not at the pace that the market had estimated. Markets are also watching the situation in Austria, which was the first to introduce a lockdown for the unvaccinated only.

Important events: This week we are expecting several speeches from the representatives of the largest central banks, as well as several important macro data. Czech central bank increased the basic interest rates so it is expected that commercial banks will soon follow. Furthermore the situation around gas pipe lines from Russia to Europe remains uncertain thus it can be expected that prices of natural gas will grow further. The two-week conference in Glasgow, Scotland, which ended yesterday, produced some ground-breaking commitments and new rules for the newly established global market for emissions allowances. Andrej Babiš’s government submitted its resignation at an extraordinary meeting on Thursday 11 November 2021.

Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 46

The total crypto market capitalization reached 2,991 trillion USD.

Bitcoin’s price is currently 65,331 USD.

Bitcoin’s dominance is currently 41,2%.

Crypto Fear and Greed index is 72, greed.

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BTC/USD

BTC as expected arrived right in our buy box at 61k and made a beautiful ride to $69k. Regardless of the current correction, we still see potential for further upside. A correction to $61300 would now be beneficial, where BTC could breathe again for an upward move. KEY RSI TL and BUY BOX is our target. BTC must not close below 61k, that would mean a bigger correction. BUY BOX for a fakeout is also a possibility, but to maintain the uptrend it would have to be a very quick move to 58k and we would have to close above 61k. It is possible, but rather less likely now.

TA BTC

DOGE/USD

DOGE is consolidating along the blue TL, as mentioned in last week’s analysis. BTC hasn’t shown any significant move towards 70k, so DOGE isn’t looking to move much either. The entire recent consolidation move significant with lower tops and bottoms. All will now be decided by a close above or below 200EMA accompanied by a possible golden or death cross. The red scenario is more healthy and could finally start a more significant move up. A last corrective move down to 0.22 and a hold of this price would result in an explosive move up. If we get above Key TL now, 0.30 is our first target.

 

TA DOGE

ETH / USD

ETH has stalled and the whole market has slowed down. ETH has dictated the pace in recent days. RSI resets very intensely and price very slowly. This suggests that after a correction to $4150-4300 and a test of the major trend line and the C&H formation line, there could be another major price rise. You don’t want to see ETH close below the 4100 level. That would mean a more significant correction and invalidation of the C&H formation. The target for this significant corrective move would then be $3500-3700. Historically, we are in the part of the year where 85% of the gains are up to around 40%. And there is a 15% probability of a larger decline. Even given the adaptation of cryptocurrencies, we see the market optimistically. The only thing that can derail plans is the equity market, which hopefully will hold up at least until March next year.

TA ETH

Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.

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