Welcome to our weekly brief. Here you will find an overview of main events and news from last week and expected events for week 42.
Fundamentals and expected events: week 42
Crypto markets: The SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) has authorized the launch of the first Bitcoin ETF in the United States by ProShare, and approval is pending for several others that currently have a strong chance of receiving approval. Then, in addition to the US ETF, a pan-European bitcoin ETF from Jacobi was also approved last week. Amid positive Bitcoin news Bitcoin’s price has surged around 30% over the past 14 days, crossing $62,000 on Monday. Cryptocurrencies are now worth more than Apple by market capitalization and Bitcoin is bigger than Facebook with more than $1 trillion in market cap.
Stock and commodity markets: European stock markets entered the new week with a selling correction. US government bond yields are rising again. Macro data from China are negative, which, with the exception of retail sales, suggests a slowdown in the growth rate of the economy there. The 3Q earnings will start to be published this week. Crude oil is near the level of 90 USD/barrel. Gold is still hovering around 1 760 USD/ounce.
Important events: Industrial producer prices in Czech Republic rose by 9.9 % year-on-year in September. We have not seen anything like this since March 1993. It is a sign of increasing inflation. We also expect several substantial macro data from EU, Japan and USA this week.
Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 42
The total crypto market capitalization reached 2,583 trillion USD.
Bitcoin’s price is currently 62,181 USD.
Bitcoin’s dominance is currently 45,1%.
Crypto Fear and Greed index is 78, extreme greed.
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BTC shows the real power of cryptocurrencies. Their limited number is starting to have an increasing impact on the price of cryptocurrencies. BTC is still rising strongly without any correction to 200EMA on 4H TF. Those who hold no BTC for the long term are now praying that they will ever be able to buy below $30k again. In order to get any correction to 200EMA, a more significant rise to $70k has to happen first. The current Point of Control is at $54840, where there is also an interesting buying opportunity before the next major move. If we break 51k, I would expect a drop to 46-47k. However, this scenario is less likely. A move to 70-72k is now materializing.
Key support has reliably held the Doge price and today the main trend line was broken. I would now expect a test of this trend line followed by another positive price rise. The Doge is doing well and everything looks optimistic. I see the next stop at $0.30 and then $0.35. We are still close to 50 and 200EMA, but unless BTC surprises us with some fake move, DOGE is going to take off soon. The whole run up is accompanied by the Golden Cross, so it could all be even more interesting since DOGE hasn’t shown us anything for a while. DOGE must not close below 0.2334 or close below the main TL on the RSI and all will go well.
A very well developing TA from ETH. ETH has broken out of the downward channel and is slowly taking off after testing 200EMA. Given the situation that is on ETH/BTC, it is more than obvious that I would expect a move towards our TA after the main TL is broken. We are getting closer to confirming the Cup and Handle (C&H) formation. A break of $4188 is now the key to the next major move. The RSI reset just confirms the whole situation. After breaking $4188 and a possible retest, things will get very interesting as the target for this move is as high as the $6700 level.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.