Welcome to our weekly brief. Here you will find an overview of main events and news from last week and expected events for week 41.
Fundamentals and expected events: week 41
Crypto markets: Growing Bitcoin has reignited the digital asset markets in the last week. The largest crypto asset ended the week with an impressive gain of 13% and it is still growin. The second and third largest assets on the table, Ethereum, and Cardano, stayed far behind with gaining 2%, and loosing 3% respectively. Most of the altcoin market lagged behind Bitcoin, and BTC’s dominance of the overall cryptocurrency market cap has increased to 45.12% as crypto holders increase their BTC exposure.
Stock and commodity markets: US stocks fell on Friday, but for the week all three major indices ended in the green. At the end of the week, investors focused on data from the US labour market. These were better than expected. European stocks are in the green numbers now as well. Gold closed at the same as last week. WTI crude oil surpassed the $80/bbl mark for the first time since November 2014.
Important events: World Blockchain Summit, one of the biggest in-person crypto events of the year, is set to take place in Dubai this week. Chinese property developer Evergrande is due to pay further interest on more than $148 million of foreign bonds this week, but it is questionable if it will do so. Inflation in the Czech Republic is flying upwards above virtually all expectations, which were not low at all. In September, it was 4.9 percent year-on-year, the highest since October 2018.
Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 41
The total crypto market capitalization reached 2,434 trillion USD.
Bitcoin’s price is currently 56,800 USD.
Bitcoin’s dominance is currently 44%.
Crypto Fear and Greed index is 71, greed.
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BTC left the channel it had been in since August 9, 2021, and headed for our target profit box without retest of that channel. On the way up, BTC was able to devastate the positive development on the altcoins. Everything was going well on for the altcoinss, but then came a couple of shaky moves in BTC and the positive development stalled. A couple of situations where BTC went up quickly and the altcoinss were not much affected. BTC arrived in our target profit box today and we already have a bearish divergence on 4H. Box 1 and box 2 are hinting at a possible correction. If we bounce already from Box 1 in the middle of the zone between 50 and 200EMA, that would be a positive momentum for the price. We would consider a drop into Box 2 to fib. 786 to be healthier and there is a confluence with the 200EMA and trendline.
If BTC grows in price enough to break our target profit box and test this zone further, the next price stop is 73K for BTC.
The bullish divergence kicked the Doge into a move up above the 50 and 200EMA. The Golden Cross supported the move and everything looked promising until the situation became too optimistic. Institutional players are keeping a close eye on onchain data and and social networks and basically the over-optimism stopped any significant movement in altcoins. The increased uncertainty and pessimism is what usually is the starter of more significant movement. Doge is now just below 50 and 200EMA after the Golden Cross and that is not a good signal. The $0.2218 is the price below which the Doge must not close the 4H candle. If it does, the next stop is as low as $0.1910 for the Doge. For a move up 0.2450 is the biggest resistance. So, if we want to be bullish, the only way is above both EMAs and to break the $0.245 per DOGE resistance.
ETH looks more optimistic. We are above 50 and 200EMA. And we have confluence in the form of TL as Key Support and POC (Point of Control). It’s very interesting how the TLs breakout is with the confluence of breaking 50 and 200EMA. Exiting the channel and breaking the major TL and then retesting this zone will be a good signal to enter. The C&H formation is still valid. I would expect more consistency throughout the market and would enter very cautiously and only on the basis of a confirmed move.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.