Welcome to our weekly brief. Here you will find an overview of main events and news from last week and expected events for week 40.
Fundamentals and expected events: week 40
Crypto markets: After a very volatile week, Bitcoin reached a near one month high above $49,000, bitcoin retraced by over $1,000 and currently struggles below $48,000. Most alternative coins followed the leader of the market. The crypto Fear and Greed index went from extreme fear to neutral today. After reaching a multi-week high above $2.150 trillion, the cryptocurrency market capitalization has also declined a bit as of today.
Stock and commodity markets: Stock markets in the US and Europe are mixed. The important thing for the stock markets in the coming week will therefore be the further development in bonds. Also highly anticipated is the monthly unemployment data on Friday. The ongoing discussions on the infrastructure package with the debt ceiling increase may also play an important role. The price of Brent crude oil is rising noticeably this afternoon, for the first time since October 2018, it has reached the price level of 82 USD per barrel, according to data from Bloomberg. The reason for the significant rise is today’s decision by the OPEC cartel and its allies led by Russia not to accelerate the already agreed pace of monthly production.
Important events: An OPEC meeting took place today, followed by speech of ECB’s president, Christine Lagarde and other macroeconomic data from U.S. as well as from the EU. This week is also the last pre-election week in Czech Republic.
Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 40
The total crypto market capitalization reached 2,182 trillion USD.
Bitcoin’s price is currently 47,699 USD.
Bitcoin’s dominance is currently 41,2%.
Crypto Fear and Greed index is 54, neutral.
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BTC didn’t even look back, when it broke through $45153 smoothly and stopped at the $49300 mark. Bearish divergence (BG) on the 4H TF has worked and triggered a mild correction so far. With the support of the Golden Cross 50EMA and 200 EMA, we expect another positive price rise preceded by a correction to the $46K-45.8K BTC level. A quick correction could reach up to $40865. We have a confluence of TLs, EMAs and POCs, so the price has support in multiple directions. We would expect one more significant move up before the next major correction. The main trend line (TL) will now play an important role, it has to support the price, otherwise it could be a fake out and the last chance box is still valid.
The bullish divergence slightly started the Doge’s upward movement. Doge is taking its time. Doge doesn’t want to go for the Golden cross just yet. This may indicate what kind of mood the market is in outside of BTC. Doge is having a hard time getting above the 50EMA. Until we get above 200EMA, we wouldn’t take any major action. The Golden Cross will be an excellent signal in this expectation when other coins have started to move. If the Doge is to move above 200EMA, we would expect it to do so in the next 48 hours. The POC at $0.2985 is still unchanged and will be the next stop once the trend line at $0.28 is broken. We would hate to see DOGE approach critical support again.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.