Welcome to our weekly brief. Here you will find an overview of main events and news from last week and expected events for week 38.
Fundamentals and expected events: week 38
Crypto markets: Volatility is back on the crypto market. After quite calm weekend, when BTC reached almost $49,000, the asset lost more than $4,000 in just a day. Losing more than $4,000 in less than 24 hours has caused that liquidations in this timeframe have exceeded $800 million. Most altcoins have lost even more, with for example Ethereum, Cardano, Ripple, Solana, and more charting double-digit declines. Thus the cryptocurrency market cap has lost more than $150 billion in a day and dropped again below $2 trillion.
Stock and commodity markets: Stocks on Wall Street plunged into the red at the end of the week, so far the mood on the markets did not improve. Investors are taking profits ahead of Wednesday’s important Fed meeting. Markets are also expecting negative development around Chinese property developer Evergrande and its possible default worth USD 305 billion. Thus Wednesday’s meeting of the Chinese central bank will also be important. Expiration of both options and futures took place during Friday, which affected trading across the market. The FDA’s 16 vs. 3 vote against the 3rd vaccine dose negatively affected the prices of pharmaceutical giants such as Pfizer and Moderna. Gold is among the few assets that have increased in value lately.
Important events: The Fed meets this Wednesday. Due to high inflation the monetary politics should be tighter, but on the other hand there is Delta variant, which is filling hospitals again. A pause in the hawkish rhetoric is thus expected, but the beginnig of the end of QE remains very likely. Elections to the Bundestag are held in Germany and parliamentary elections will take place in Canada. Fed’s Jerome Powell will be holding a speech as well as John Williams. Interesting macro data from USA are also expected. Cardano (ADA), the third-largest asset in crypto, will host its annual conference this week.
Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 38
The total crypto market capitalization reached 2,051 trillion USD.
Bitcoin’s price is currently 44,789 USD.
Bitcoin’s dominance is currently 41,1%.
Crypto Fear and Greed index is 50, neutral.
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BTC did not surprise. After a very intense move below the 50 and 200 EMAs, as expected, there was a corrective move above both EMAs for others in the hope that the decline is sparked. Just before the Death Cross, BTC made a beautiful showing in front of our eyes, after which BTC fell all the way below both EMAs and the important TL from the previous H&S formation. The next important support is $39600. And the last bailout at $33000, where we don’t foresee us getting to if it weren’t for the capital market. However, we would recommend to be very cautious now given the over-aged equity market, the fall of which could significantly turn the momentum also for crypto market. If the markets collectively weren’t so correlated, we wouldn’t count on 33,000. Be very vigilant now. We are going to see some very interesting market moves before the end of September. The key for the next move up is to overcome the RSI TL.
Doge is at a very critical moment. We don’t want to believe that we have broken and tested critical support as resistance. After such a move, we could look very low on some flash to the $0.10 Doge level. We’ve been looking at that chart over and over again and it’s not impossible. Today, we stopped right where the Doge should stay unless a critical scenario is brewing. We would be very patient with the Doge and wait for the Golden Cross 50 and 200 EMA on the 4H.
PlatonCoin and its stability. The decline of the cryptocurrency market continues and PlatonCoin is moving between its major support of $0.50-0.55 (EUR 0.42-0.46) and resistance of $0.60-0.65 (EUR 0.52-0.56). Maintaining the price in a turbulent market situation is an excellent key for further growth. Make no mistake, PlatonCoin is no stablecoin and in the current market situation we would expect further strengthening of support around $0.50-0.55 (EUR 0.42-0.46), which the PLTC is less and less keen to test and instead it is looking for further price gains.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.