Welcome to our weekly brief. Here you will find an overview of main events and news from last week and expected events for week 36.
Fundamentals and expected events: week 36
Crypto markets: After dipping below $50,000 once more on Sunday, Bitcoin has gone on a tear again and surged to a new multi-month high above $52,000. September is historically Bitcoin’s worst-performing month. That said, it has been verging on $50,000 for the past three weeks or so now. Should Bitcoin stage a breakout above this psychologically significant milestone, it could renew investor interest and spark the momentum needed to carry it to a new ATH. Some altcoins are also well in the green, with Binance Coin trading above $500 and Chainlink spiking 15%. By adding around $80 billion in a day, the crypto market cap has also seen a multi-month record at $2.350 trillion.
Stock and commodity markets: Stock markets began to weaken significantly after the publication of US labour market data, which fell several times short of estimates, which the market took as a negative signal indicating a possible faster slowdown in the dynamics of economic recovery. The market is now worried about a very tricky combination of ever-rising inflation with slowing economic growth. Several analysts are now questioning the Fed’s belief that rising inflation is only a temporary factor that will resolve itself. The Euro area consumer price index accelerated sharply in August, according to preliminary estimates, rising to 3% yoy from 2.2% in July. Germany reported inflation at 3.4% yesterday, the most since 2008. Oil tried to continue with growth last week, but the US macro later put an imaginary stop to this effort, however it is recovering again. Gold failed briefly below $1700 this morning.
Important events: Next ECB Monetary Committee meeting will be held on September 9 and the data on rapid price increases is estimated to increase the pressure on central bankers. EU Ministers of Finance will meet this Saturday.
Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 36
The total crypto market capitalization reached 2,431 trillion USD.
Bitcoin’s price is currently 51,733 USD.
According to the plan and the last analysis, the main TL was broken with volume support and even without testing this TL. BTC did not give us the opportunity to buy on the 200EMA breakout. BTC has been bullish in the last week. Now BTC is clearly above both the 50 and 200EMA. Even the negative parabolic move of BTC broke after retesting. Make no mistake. For another significant move, BTC will need to take a breath after a likely rejection at the RSI 75-82 level. We expect this rejection to find support in the form of the 50EMA otherwise we would expect a deeper correction to the 200EMA where the POC is also located at $46,000 per BTC.
DOGE broke the price of $29.14. With volume support, it broke above the TL that connects the peaks and came back above the 50EMA. On support volume it tested TL and now the 50EMA and 200EMA form an important support including horizontal support at $0.30 per DOGE where the POC is located. Currently, DOGE is showing weakness in price growth and is in a bearish divergence on the RSI at 4H. A break of this divergence, which is the current scenario under consideration, where price rises to reach an extreme in the RSI (above $72,3) would finally open the door to our target profit. Critical support is now around the $0.26 price level.
PlatonCoin price is developing as expected. The support of $0.50-0.55 (EUR 0.42-0.46) is resisting the waning interest to sell below this price. The trend line and its strength indicate which way the price will go in the coming days. The $0.60-0.65 (EUR 0.52-0.56) Plato coin is the inevitable next stop, located in the middle of a long-term growth channel. PLTC does not correlate with BTC, so even the likely upcoming correction will not affect the PLTC price.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.