Crypto markets: The cryptocurrency market has not seen such a negative trading week since the mid-June crash. Bitcoin’s situation took another turn for the worse as the asset slipped below $20,800. Most altcoins are in a similar position this week, making it the worst performing trading one since the massive crash in mid-June.
Stock and commodity markets: European stock markets started the week with a strong selling correction. Gas prices on European markets continued to rise sharply on fears of a possible complete Russian supply shutdown, which could come in the context of the announced short-term “technical” outage of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The US stock markets are also starting the new week with a strong decline. In addition to the general reasons mentioned above, the strengthening dollar, which broke the parity line against the euro again today after about a month, is having a negative effect. Oil weakened more strongly in a relatively volatile session and found itself back near the $93 per barrel Brent mark after several days. Gold weakened in response to the strengthening dollar.
Fundaments and important events: Without Russian gas, Europe will have serious economic problems which, moreover, cannot be solved satisfactorily immediately. Fears of a possible Russia-China deal in the context of the announced G-20 summit in November are also having a negative impact in general terms. China is addressing the issue of Taiwan’s separatist efforts. There will be several important macro data this weekend and also an important economic symposium at Jackson Hole, U.S.
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Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 34
BTC / USD
BTC does incredible things. And less experienced traders must be going nuts. Let’s stick to our exact scenario. BTC has failed to hold in our decision box breaking the major trend line with a roughly 15 percent drop. We are now below both the 200 and 50EMA, but BTC has stopped exactly at the level of the last upward correction. And more than the start of a massive decline, everything looks like a fakeout. The RSI has massively reset to the 15 level, which is very unusual, and so everything looks like BTC has taken a breath for another move up. The decision will be made at both the 50 and 200EMA levels. Testing the support of this decline is still in play, so SL is necessary. We are leaning towards a bullish scenario, as the dollar also looks more likely to fall now, which could kick off a bigger move up. BTC is now facing a lot of selling pressure, so any longs must have a precise plan including SLs.
ETH / USD
It’s hard to believe what the chart now says. Bearish, bearish, bearish… We still think there’s intent. We’re fast approaching the death cross, we’re below both the 50 and 200EMA. ETH is just about ready for a plunge down. For how promising everything looked last week, we are now hard pressed to find arguments for any upside. Rather, it looks like a slight corrective move up before another drop to roughly the $1,700 zone. At the moment, the move down has stopped our critical support at $1540. A retest of it may trigger another downside decline. The next stop will then be at $1400, where the bullish divergence we are approaching may help us a lot.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.