Crypto markets: After spiking above $25,000 to a new two-month high, bitcoin was violently rejected at that point and dumped by more than $1,000 in hours. Most altcoins are also deep in the red today, following the past few days of charting gains. Crypto markets thus once again confirmed their volatility.
Stock and commodity markets: European stock markets were generally slightly stronger, US stock markets started the week in a slightly negative mood, also affected by an unexpectedly strong drop in business confidence in New York State. Oil and gold both gained slightly, with investors remaining undecided due to the overall tense political and economic situation.
Fundaments and important events: Investors continued to watch mainly macroeconomic news, the weakening euro and corporate earnings reports. Commentary on inflation in Asia is positive, where the peak in growth appears to have been passed and inflationary pressures in the region are no longer as strong as in the “West”. On a negative note, macro data from Europe is showing a decline in real incomes and the threat of loan and mortgage defaults. The euro continued the weakening against the dollar started last week following strong US macro suggesting that the Fed has room to further tighten its monetary policy. The continuing rise in gas and electricity prices is also a decisive factor, raising concerns about the negative impact on economic development.
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Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 33
BTC / USD
Price is slowing down and the RSI is resetting. Today between 6-10pm we will know where we go next. The fact that BTC has not touched the red TL resistance is definitely an exclamation point for a move up. But given the way price has been manipulated in recent days, we shouldn’t worry about it. Either we bounce from our buy box already or from the main trend line. Now a lot depends on the RSI, which should reach towards 30 at any given moment. The next important day will be Aug 20 at 2-6pm where if a bounce occurs we could see the price up to around 26k. If a bounce doesn’t happen, the next stop will be 20100 and then possibly 19100, which we don’t expect at the moment. The higher we get, the bottom of the eventual decline moves in. The red box on the RSI, the 200EMA and the major TL on price are our target.
ETH / USD
ETH has been more active in its move and is systematically approaching the $2,200 target, where the next move will be decided. ETH’s behavior suggests which way the entire market could go, with more downside volatility to be expected for the entire market and ETH as the PoS transition approaches. We can’t expect ETH to fall any further than $1655 this week on a massive RSI reset. 1750 and 1670 are now important supports that should hold price. Critical support is now at $1540. A decision will be made on ETH by 10pm today as well. By that time we should be at RSI 30. A bounce is needed for another move up to $2200.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.
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