Week 31 – Fundamental and technical analysis

week 21, week 31

Crypto markets: Cryptocurrencies have appreciated mightily over the past week in the context of a broader recovery of the risk asset market. Bitcoin has climbed back above $24k, there has been an across the board appreciation across digital currencies. In general, since the beginning of the year, virtual coins have moved in tandem with traditional risk assets. Extremely bearish sentiment is gradually fading. In addition to the overall improvement in investor sentiment, some positive news, such as the fact that low-volume digital coin transactions will not be subject to taxation, has helped.

Stock and commodity markets: During the past week, world stock markets have strengthened noticeably. The S&P 500 added 4.3%, with US stocks gaining more than 9% for the month, the best monthly performance since November 2020. Stocks were driven higher by the Fed chief’s rhetoric, an encouraging earnings season so far and some easing of lockdown pressures in China. Oil prices are under pressure from fears of a global economic recession and a related decline in demand for energy resources. At the same time, experts warn that the supply of oil on the market may not be sufficient, and with reports that OPEC+ will leave next month’s production targets unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday, oil prices are rising again. Gold and other commodities are benefiting from a weaker dollar and lower bond yields.

Fundaments and important events: The last week of July was all about the US FOMC meeting and the 2Q22 earnings season. The Fed, as expected, raised base interest rates by 75 b.p. Powell stated that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates to quickly dampen inflation, even if it means a slowdown in economic growth or a mild recession. In early August, markets will be watching for the continuation of earnings season. Its outlook so far is rather supportive for the markets. In addition to the earnings season, a lot of macroeconomic data will be released at the beginning of the month, which will help the market to form a picture of the state of the economy and possible future monetary policy actions. We should expect up to more than 100% year-on-year growth in electricity prices in the autumn.

Would you like to gain a better understanding of the world of cryptocurrencies? Try our series of educational articles for newbies. Did you find a term in the text that you don’t understand? You can find all the most commonly used terms in our glossary

Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 31

BTC / USD

BTC is running exactly on our “almost to the dollar” plan. BTC arrived at our buy box and bounced right off the trend lines. Over the last two days, BTC has been falling gradually to the 200EMA level, which it has not touched. It can be seen that the bigger players are watching the market closely and most likely gradually gaining liquidity for a bigger correction to the downside. They keep creating the impression that there will be more growth and hence they are gaining more liquidity. At this point, more downward pressure is gradually coming, but not all buyers know it yet. It is now imperative to have SLs for both shorts and longs. If there should be a downward correction, the upper limit of the move is $24676k for BTC. A breakout trade at this price may be a good option. A retest of 22k would be ideal for the next move up. A break of $20700 per BTC will trigger a larger correction to below the 20k level. Breaking the blue local TL means a move into our decision box. Breaking the red resistance TL means a move to 25k.
TA BTC

ETH / USD

ETH also followed our last analysis very closely. At the moment, ETH is just above 200EMA. ETH is also now giving us a slight hint as to what the best path would be now, and that could be a retest of $1420. If we don’t go to $1420 right away then after testing $1700 it is very likely. The buy boxes are marked and so all that is left is to place the SLs correctly. Simply put, as smooth as the road down has been, the road up is very thorny, which suggests that the downward pressure on price remains and all that is happening now is just liquidity accumulation.
TA ETH

Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.

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