Week 30 – Fundamental and technical analysis

news, week 30

Fundamentals and expected events: week 30

Crypto markets: Positive sentiment in the cryptocurrency market plunged after Tesla sold 75% of its reserves held in Bitcoin, equivalent to about $936 million. The major cryptocurrency has fallen below $23,000 and Ethereum below $1,500. Minecraft developers Mojang Studios banned NFT token integrations in their wildly popular game. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has listed nine crypto assets as securities as part of the insider trading case against former Coinbase manager. SkyBridge Capital has suspended withdrawals from its crypto-exposed Legion Strategies fund.

Stock and commodity markets: Global stock markets have plunged this year on fears of an impending recession, helped by hawkish central banks trying to tame runaway inflation. Even so, equity funds have net inflows of $181 billion this year, while bond funds have been hit by outflows of $206 billion. US stock markets entered the new week without a clear direction. Rising interest rates in the US, the world’s key economy, are putting pressure on the gold price. It is already trading at its lowest price in more than a year. The price of US WTI crude oil rose by 2.2%.

Fundaments and important events: There will be many important macroeconomic and corporate news this week. At the corporate level, reports from Amazon, Google, Apple, Microsoft as well as Intel will be among the most watched. On Thursday the first estimate of the US economy’s 2Q growth will be released.Confidence in the Czech and German economies fell for the second month in a row in July. The aggregate indicator of economic sentiment fell from 6.3 to 3.5 points. Both business and consumer confidence continued to decline. The Minister of Industry and Trade Jozef Sikela has called an extraordinary Energy Council, which will take place tomorrow in Brussels. The meeting will be attended by the Ukrainian Minister for Energy, Herman Galushchenko. This week, the US Federal Reserve will hold a high-profile meeting, the main outcome of which will be the way forward and the strategy to fight ever-rising inflation. Inflation rose to 9.1% year-on-year in June from 8.6% in May, reaching its highest level in 40 years.

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Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 30

BTC / USD

BTC action is now weakening and at first glance it may look like a correction before the next move. At this point I wouldn’t count on a bigger drop than the $20600 level. The entire current move looks like a “flat” move. In the event that we fall below $20600 for BTC, the door opens to $18900. We have two “TLs” forming on the price which are heading towards a “falling wedge” formation. A breakout and close below the lower TL means a fall down and the upper TL a move up. Should BTC take a breath for a proper move, the next stop is $30k for BTC if we overcome all resistances along the path indicated by the blue dashed lines.
TA BTC

ETH / USD

The situation is different for ETH than for BTC. And the PoS transition plays a big role in this. ETH is forming a bullish divergence on the 4H TF and massively resetting the RSI with the simultaneous golden cross that happened on 7/19. And even corrective moves to 50EMA are without touching this EMA line. The price distance from the key price TL that we cannot fall below is less than $200 (around the $1350 price). It looks like ETH could be an important link for the entire market. Any major drop in ETH, especially below $1350, could trigger a selloff.  A break of the key RSI TL will trigger another move up.
TA ETH

Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.

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