Fundamentals and expected events: week 29

Crypto markets: Cryptocurrencies added slightly again even as risk sentiment returned to global markets. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has once again risen above $1 trillion. Bitcoin is looking to reverse weakness against Ethereum and increase its dominance over other altcoins. Historically, Bitcoin has only fallen below its moving average three times and has always recovered. Bitcoin’s rebound has been helped by rising index valuations in both Europe and the U.S.

Stock and commodity markets: US stocks have firmed up significantly. Surprisingly favourable quarterly results of some companies contributed to this. Investors are thus beginning to believe that the June lows were already the day of the current bear trend. The mood in the stock market is also supported by the weakening dollar. Equity indices from the Asia-Pacific region traded at higher levels at the start of the new week. Oil is benefiting from risk sentiment and lack of announcements of increased production from Saudi Arabia. Brent is up 1.7% and WTI is trading 1.4% higher. Precious metals are gaining, with gold up 0.6% and platinum and silver up 1.3%.

Fundaments and important events: Further increases in inflation in the euro area were mainly due to higher food and energy prices. China reported the highest daily number of new cases of Covid-19 in almost 3 months. Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia resulted in no announcement of increased oil production by Saudi Arabia. There will be several important macro data and events this week, including a decision on the interest rate by the ECB.

Would you like to gain a better understanding of the world of cryptocurrencies? Try our series of educational articles for newbies. Did you find a term in the text that you don’t understand? You can find all the most commonly used terms in our glossary. 

Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 29

BTC / USD

BTC perfectly respected the RSI TL and the bullish divergence and bounced to the first major move up. A slight fakeout below 19k with a cheating candle (marked in red) was the first signal that the move down is halted for another week. BTC has arrived at our decision box where we now need to watch for a bearish divergence on the 8H TF and a more massive RSI reset. Now the important days are July 21 and 22 when a correction could occur. Those who waited to buy will have a hard time now, as the correction can only be flat and will not allow them an interesting entry without much risk. The Cost Average Effect was the key and it applies now. If we can stay above the current last move day for another month, we can say that the bottom before the next halving has been reached. The blue dashed lines indicate price levels where we can expect BTC to react. A retest of the $21600 level is still likely. The breakout of the declining long term TL and 200EMA on the 4H TF has already occurred. Looks like we have something to look forward to.

ETH / USD

Wooow ETH. At first glance, you can see that something is going on in the background. And that is the transition to PoS. Already, ETH is at an extreme at 8H TF on the RSI. So it is ahead of BTC. And at this point we are very quickly approaching a golden cross. Both of our decision boxes have been reached and ETH is now above 50 and above 200EMA. Once the long term price TL is overcome, the next target is around $2300-2400. A retest of the $1280 zone is still likely before the next move up. Breaking the RSI TL and testing this TL as resistance will most likely create a bearish divergence and trigger a corrective move.

Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.