Week 28 – Fundamental and technical analysis

news, week 28

Fundamentals and expected events: week 28

Crypto markets:Bitcoin broke below the psychological threshold of 20 000 USD again. Bitcoin’s downward trend has taken smaller cryptocurrencies with it. Ethereum is now approaching the $1,000 level. The declines are due to weak sentiment in the stock markets. The drop in investor sentiment is due to negative perceptions of “riskier” assets ahead of the next quarterly earnings season. The disastrous first half of this year signals a possible further deterioration for investors. Cryptocurrencies have proven in the past to be a harbinger of stock market movements in the face of high volatility. Some bulls believe that if the results from Wall Street surprise positively, it will kick-start cryptocurrencies to reverse the trend. Poor performance and panic may push the price of the “crypto king” to the $13,000 level.

Stock and commodity markets: Stock markets around the world have been losing for several days. So far, the declines have been felt mainly by investors. However, economists are easing fears of another crisis. Stocks are being dragged down mainly by industry and banks, which are worried about an economic recession. Fears about the future development of the economies, the impact of the geopolitical situation and the coming winter are reflected in the declines of the main stock exchanges.The global macroeconomic situation is crucial for the oil market.

Fundaments and important events:The euro weakened against the dollar for the first time in almost twenty years to the so-called parity, i.e. to an exchange rate of 1:1. The world’s two major reserve currencies last reached parity during trading on 5 December 2002, and from then until now the euro has always been stronger than the dollar. The U.S. Consumer Price Index for June rose to 9.1% y/y, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, versus the market’s expected shift to 8.8% from May’s 8.6%. June’s rate of increase is the highest since December 1981. European Union policymakers have struck a deal on landmark legislation to regulate crypto assets and service providers with the newly approved Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) framework.

Would you like to gain a better understanding of the world of cryptocurrencies? Try our series of educational articles for newbies. Did you find a term in the text that you don’t understand? You can find all the most commonly used terms in our glossary

Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 28


BTC was very lax in creeping towards the 23k resistance and in the end it didn’t even touch it. Should we be bearish now? $22401 is all BTC has shown in the last week. We have gotten back below the 50EMA. The descent from the $22401 level is very gradual and suggests that the move up may not be over yet. A break of the TL on price or the RSI will cause another move to the $22500 level. Reaching RSI 35 could be a good signal of an upcoming breakout given the bullish divergence reached on the 4H TF. If this divergence is not respected, we will look below $19k for BTC again. Likewise, breaking the top of the red marked candle may be another signal for an upward move. If either of these signals are met, the box where the next move up will be decided has moved to the $22,500 level due to the still downward bias of the 200EMA.


ETH behaves identically to BTC. No touch of resistance at $1300 and subsequent move below 50EMA. Local TLs on price were indeed broken, but it was only a sideways move. Now the key candle is marked in red. The bottom of this candle is at $1048. A fall below $1048 could trigger another move down below $1000 for ETH. If the support TL holds, ETH could bounce to the $1270 price level. And if support in the form of 200EMA is confirmed, to the $1500 price level. Critical support is formed by the conjunction with our key candle and currently priced at around $670. For simplicity’s sake, it is now best to watch the Key TL on both price and RSI. A break of these TL’s may trigger another move to the previously mentioned resistances.

Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.

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