Week 26 – Fundamental and technical analysis

week 17, week 26

Fundamentals and expected events: week 26

Crypto markets:After bottoming at $17,500 last Sunday, an 18-month low, the primary cryptocurrency began its recovery on Monday and quickly reclaimed the coveted $20,000 line. It dipped below a few times in the next couple of days but stood north of it for longer periods. Similar to Bitcoin, most altcoins remained relatively calm during the weekend. Nevertheless, the start of this week brought some good news for Ethereum as it managed to break its longest negative streak of 11 consecutive weekly candles in the red.

Stock and commodity markets:The first half of the year is coming to an end. Stocks have been hurt by strengthening inflation fears and the tightening of monetary policy by central banks. Stocks in the United States started the week lower. The main contributors were large growth stocks sensitive to interest rates, such as Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet. So far, all three major indices appear on track to post two consecutive quarters of losses for the first time since 2015, and are also on track to post a loss for the full month of June. That would mean three straight months of declines for the Nasdaq, which would be the longest losing streak since 2015. Oil prices rose by two percent, gold closed in the red, silver, on the other hand, was in a slight plus.

Fundaments and important events: G7 leaders announced continued support for Ukraine. The price cap mechanism on Russian oil was also mentioned during the meeting, which should reduce the Kremlin’s ability to fund the war. OPEC+ lowered its estimate for the 2022 oil surplus to 1.0 mbpd from the original 1.4 mbpd. Indirect negotiations between the US and Iran will resume in the coming days, with the EU acting as a mediator. The EIA said that despite earlier announcements, it would not release data on US crude oil inventories due to hardware and server problems.

Would you like to gain a better understanding of the world of cryptocurrencies? Try our series of educational articles for newbies. Did you find a term in the text that you don’t understand? You can find all the most commonly used terms in our glossary

Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 26

BTC / USD

What is happening now in the market is very unusual. Even when BTC fell to $3,850 it was not as tense as it is now. The RSI on the 3D TF has been below 30 for many days now. That means we are very oversold. And for how oversold we are, we still don’t see “max pain”. A lot of traders are acting like they are prepared for this situation. And that’s not a good signal for a more significant bullish trend. BTC did get into our box and above our RSI TL, but instead of an upward reaction, there was a sideways move. Now that the RSI is resetting faster than price, which is a positive indicator, we need to break our local RSI TL and stay above RSI 40 to get to higher price. Overall, the market looks very weak. Many alts have used the BTC doing nothing as an opportunity to make more significant moves to the upside. Which may also be a protection against the price of alts falling when the price of BTC drops more. Averaging purchases and good timing of entries is now key. Breaking 22k will trigger a move to 200EMA ($25k for BTC). A break of 19743 dollars per BTC will open the door to 14k.
TA BTC

ETH / USD

With the passage of time, all important resistances in the form of EMAs are gradually getting compressed, which will result in a more pronounced move. This multi-day sideways movement of ETH is partially closing some price levels for us, as a break of support could see the ETH price plummet to levels that are not current for the cryptocurrency market. It is important to note that the big players still have plenty of tools to move the market without selling a single piece of ETH or BTC. Trading Futures contracts or shorting stablecoins can be cited as examples. ETH’s current all-time low is at $580, where we don’t expect ETH to get. Now ETH has broken the Local RSI TL and is slowly scratching above the 50EMA. If there is a rejection, our next stop could be as high as $950. A move up after breaking $1282 may be as high as $1500 for ETH where the next move will be decided.
TA ETH

Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.

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