Week 24 – Fundamental and technical analysis

week 20, week 24

Fundamentals and expected events: week 24

Crypto markets: On Friday, the US inflation report (a record 8.6% year-on-year increase) kicked off the decline of Bitcoin, which first dropped from $30,000 to $29,000 in a matter of hours. What happened (and is still happening) in the next few days, however, is considerably steeper. Bitcoin’s freefall intensified when the asset fell to $27,000 on Saturday and $26,000 on Sunday, causing more than $500 million to be liquidated two days in a row. The most recent price drop came a few hours ago, when BTC plunged below $25,000 and fell to an intraday low of $24,500. This is the lowest price position the cryptocurrency has seen since December 2020. As it happens, when BTC heads down, altcoins do too. Most of them were deep in the red over the weekend, and are still falling on a daily basis. Moreover, during the ETH turmoil, the whale liquidated a huge amount of ETH, bringing its price down to $941 on Uniswap before it recovered. Ultimately, the cumulative market capitalization of all cryptocurrency assets dipped below $1 trillion for the first time in over a year. The metric has seen $300 billion gone in the past several days. PlatonCoin has held its price so far and has made it into the top 200 coins by market capitalization on Coingecko.com thanks to the market declines.

Stock and commodity markets: During last week and early this week, world stock markets weakened noticeably. The S&P 500 wrote off 5.1%, the most significant weekly decline since January. In addition to tightening monetary policy, investors are worried about how a synchronized slowdown in global economic growth will affect stock markets. A growing number of stockbrokers and economists are beginning to question whether central banks can slow inflation without triggering a recession. Adding to the jitters are new lockdowns in Shanghai. Thus, we are likely to see continued elevated volatility in the coming weeks. Consumer prices in the Czech Republic also increased by 1.8% month-on-month. Year-on-year, consumer prices rose by 16.0% in May, 1.8 percentage points higher than in April. On Friday, gold took a turn after the release of the US CPI. First it fell along with stocks and cryptocurrencies, but then it broke away and now its price is up.

Fundaments and important events: During Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the second consecutive week by another 50 basis points to 1.5%. Investors will be waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, where commentary on Friday’s inflation data can be expected. The Bank of England will also raise rates for the fifth consecutive time during the growing global cost of living crisis. The Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank will also come to the monetary policy table later in the week. ECB expected to end asset purchase programme on 30 June and it announced a rate hike as well. Retail sales data and other macro data will provide insight into whether inflation is eroding household purchasing power. Finance ministers from the EU will meet on Friday.

Would you like to gain a better understanding of the world of cryptocurrencies? Try our series of educational articles for newbies. Did you find a term in the text that you don’t understand? You can find all the most commonly used terms in our glossary. Would you like to know more about how to invest safely in cryptocurrencies? Contact us

Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 24

BTC / USD

The unbelievable has come true. BTC is approaching the 20k mark. And given the circumstances in other capital markets, everything is running in line. No market is out of line. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We’re not at 20k yet. Nothing is as black as it first appears. BTC has arrived at our exclamation point box, where it has decided its next move. The rejection and subsequent break of the trendline started the sharp downward move. If you recall our mention of the bear flag targeting 13k for BTC, this scenario is now happening. 13k is already pretty low, but the probability is there. 20-23k is currently in play. Turn off leveraged trades and focus on spot trading only. There is a lot at stake right now. Averaging the price on the downside is the best way to go. Bullish divergence on the 4H TF has already formed, but no visible force for an upward move has appeared yet. Arm yourself with patience. Mighty support at 20-23k and market response to this support will be the best signal to buy.
TA BTC

ETH / USD

Critical ETH support has been broken with enough energy to see us look as high as $1,200 for ETH. The situation is the same as for BTC. One potential target that could stop the price from falling is at $1000-1050. If we break and close below $1000, that will be a big deal for traders who are in dollars. As a rule, in such situations, a reverse move comes before the last dump to make the market makers pour more optimism to the people who are trading. Same thing that applies to BTC and all other pairs, so now trade spot only.
TA ETH

Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.

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