Week 23 – Fundamental and technical analysis

week 23

Fundamentals and expected events: week 23

Crypto markets: Bitcoin has managed to reverse the bearish development of past several weeks, rising above the $31,400 level after a bearish weekend and adding 5.1% to its USD exchange rate. Ethereum and other top cryptos have been following the king crypto to the North, with ETH rising 5.2%. Analytical company Santiment informed that mega whale addresses that hold between 100+ and 10,000+ Bitcoins have been accumulating heavily and by now, they hold their biggest supply of BTC in 2022. PlatonCoin broke above the level of USD 1 and also EUR 1 and is very near its historical ATH now.

Stock and commodity markets: Indices from the Asia-Pacific region traded higher at the start of the new week. European indices did the same. Oil has recovered from its recent decline and is trading at its highest level in almost 3 months. United States to allow Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol to buy Venezuelan oil without violating sanctions. Precious metals are also rising, most notably silver and palladium.

Fundaments and important events: Macro data from Czech republic and surrounding countries regarding industrial production, foreign trade and construction in April fell short of market expectations. The data were affected by high prices of imported raw materials and continuing problems with the supply chain disruptions. On a positive note, the pandemic situation in China continues to improve. ECB will decide on its interest rates on Wednesday and CNB is expected to increase the basic interest rates as well, since CNB Governor Jiří Rusnok said during the weekend that he expects a decision on a rate hike of 0.75% or more at this month’s meeting. Currently, the base rate is at 5.75%, the highest since 1999.

Tip: Globalisation as we know it is over

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Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 23


BTC’s movement around trendline breakouts and subsequent contrarian moves are a signal for great caution and a very significant move is gradually coming. Market makers and professional traders have one quality in common and that is patience. They can wait weeks or even months for really big moves. BTC is currently above 50EMA and just below 200EMA. It was very interesting to observe when the local TL met 50EMA, there was an almost immediate bounce. There will be a similar contact but in the form of resistance in the coming days. It will meet the 200EMA and the multi-week TL. you can certainly imagine how pivotal a moment this will be. We have a decision box higher than this key point, but to even get to the decision box we have to deal with this key moment in the form of resistance. If we break and test this zone, we have a lot to look forward to. If it is rejected, then the next decline can begin on June 10.


Critical ETH support still keeps the price above $1,700. ETH is a bit hesitant, but reacts similarly to BTC. When TL and 50EMA collide, it bounces up to $1900. ETH has all the important resistances in front of it (red dashed lines). 200EMA is still in a downtrend, so we will still need some time before it turns positive. The red key TL on the price is now combined with the 200EMA key. For simplicity, a breakout above $1927 will trigger a move up to the 200EMA, which represents a price of $2080 per ETH. As with BTC, June 10 is the key date on ETH. A new swing trade can be expected on this day. If we go up now, there is a high probability that we will go down from June 10.


Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.

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