Week 16 – Fundamental and technical analysis

trading, week 25, morning, week 16

Fundamentals and expected events: week 16

Crypto markets: While yesterday Bitcoin dumped to a monthly low beneath $39,000, and the crypto market cap declined by about $80 billion in a day, there is a bounce back today with Bitcoin gaining back the important level of $40,000 and reaching well beyond it. Most other altcoins are also in the green numbers with gains around 2 – 5%. Historical data show that stocks and cryptos are entering a seasonally strong period in April and May, which could encourage short-term price rises. So volatility is back on the crypto markets, together with increased geo-political tensions.

Stock and commodity markets: At the beginning of the week, the US indices did not fare well. Investors are closely watching the new earnings season and the actions of the US Federal Reserve, whose officials are expected to comment on the topic of further interest rate hikes this week. The decline in bond markets continues as the Fed’s hawkish statements intensify. U.S. consumer inflation rose slightly more than expected in March, and the March price increase is the highest since December 1981. Following events on foreign markets, increased volatility returned to the Prague Stock Exchange. Gold producers’ profit margins have been much higher in the last two years than in previous gold cycles. The price of oil rose slightly again.

Fundaments and important events: After a long weekend, the economic calendar will continue its restful pace this week. From the Czech Republic, we are waiting for the manufacturing inflation figure. The expected increase will once again reflect the war in Ukraine, which has resulted in a sharp rise in commodity prices, especially oil and gas, and ongoing problems from supply chains, where the smooth supply of components is still unable to be restored due to the worsening covid situation in China.  We expect only moderately important macro data from the US. The ECB met last Thursday, no surprises came as expected and the APP program should end in Q3. In France, we will know the result of the presidential election on Sunday.

Tip: Why there is much less female investors than male investors? 

Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 16

BTC / USD

Given the market situation, today we decided to take a bird’s eye view of the BTC analysis, where it is more obvious what will happen in the coming days or weeks. BTC has been messing with us for the past few days. However, the situation on the 3D TF is much clearer. BTC has tested 200EMA on the 3D TF with complete accuracy. It didn’t even test the bottom of the growth channel. Currently, BTC is in a situation where it has 33 days left and has to make a final decision. We are approaching the main trend line which forms resistance on one side and the bottom of the channel and the 200EMA in line forms support on the other. Currently, a move to the middle part of the channel is very likely, where the 50EMA, our Decision Box, should also be tested. Target profit box remains at $50k per BTC. A break of $37400 could mean more downside for BTC.
TA BTC

ETH / USD

At first glance, ETH seems to be teetering on the edge of a precipice. But if we move to 3D TF and compare the situation with BTC, ETH is doing very well. ETH has tested the aforementioned critical support at $2800 and even today, when we already know that the transition to PoS will be postponed, it is holding its price and basically replicating what is happening on BTC. Of utmost importance now is a break and test of the $3,286 price. The obstacle on the way may be the price of $3095, where the resistance in the form of 200EMA is located. A break and test will also result in a golden cross in the next few days which could push the price higher. On retest of the critical support, a bullish divergence has formed which is now driving the price higher. At this point, we really don’t want to go back to the critical support zone now, that could mean the start of a decline to $2500.
TA ETH

Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.

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