Week 14 – News and markets

Fundamentals and expected events: week 14

Crypto markets: Bitcoin tested again the level of $47,000, but failed and retraced by around a thousand dollars shortly after. Most altcoins are untypically stable, except PlatonCoin, which shoot up by 11.4%. Ethereum marked a three-month high a few days ago above $3,500 and has remained around that level ever since. The crypto market cap stands still above $2.250 trillion.

Stock and commodity markets: Stock markets started new week moderately in red numbers. Commodity markets are heavily influenced by the situation in Ukraine and recent decree from Vladimir Putin that Russia will accept payments for gas and other commodities in rubles only. While oil prices are now slightly decrasing, prices of natural gas are sky rocketing. Gold is also a bit in red numbers due to the increasing price of USD, however it was very volatile last week and volatility can be expected in the upcomming weeks as well.

Fundaments and important events: Geopolitical conflict in Europe remains an important influence on global markets. Lagarde and Powell have repeatedly warned that the military operation in Ukraine creates additional risks for the global economy and price stability. The war in Ukraine is fuelling global inflation, as well as creating a food crisis and leading to higher energy prices. Vladimir Putin signed a decree to accept gas payments only in rubles from 1 April. In general, it is still unclear how will the world react. But if the end result is that Russia refuses to supply gas to Europe or that Europe refuses to supply gas from Russia, the price of gas could rise even more. At the same time, Russia will have nowhere to put its gas, and Europe will have nowhere to take the gas in the volumes it is taking from the Russian Federation. Besides that there are rising fears of new Covid-19 cases in China, due to which the major port in Shang-hai is not able to process shippments. That places even more stress on the global production. Macro data from the Czech republic and other countries will thus probably have only a minor role this time, if it does not bring an unexpected surprise.

Tip: Coin or token? Do you know the difference?

Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 14

BTC / USD

BTC flew through the buy box and was stopped only by TL, which now also forms an important support. A break of $44200 would mark the start of a deeper correction to the key support at $41300. A break of the buy box may not mean anything major yet, as there was also a retest of the already broken resistance. What is more worrying is that the price is just barely holding above the important support at $45850 and after 5 retests of this price a final breakout is imminent. The support to prevent a breakout from happening is both the 50 and 200EMA. On the upside we need to break $47459 and on the downside we must not break $45565. According to our scenario from last week, a reset of the RSI was due. And it did come, all the way to the RSI 30 level. From this perspective, BTC is ready to move up. Let’s see if the RSI reset, TL retest and holding above $45850 will be enough. The decision will be made this week.

ETH / USD

ETH, on the other hand, did not venture into any great wilderness compared to BTC in the form of breaking the buy box. Support in the form of 50EMA was enough. Even on the 4H TF, ETH is starting to form a bullish divergence, which could be enough impetus to move towards the TP box. ETH is behaving much more consistently and can give us a hint at the moment. Either way, on any move up we see $3900 for ETH as a local high where the next move is decided. Key support remains at 200EMA.

Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.

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