Fundamentals and expected events: week 12
Crypto markets: Market volatility is slowing down after four weeks of very turbulent moves. Santiment reported that the activity of large holders of major digital assets fell to the lowest level in a year. And that means the market won’t show sharp moves in the next few days either, under the condition that there isn’t any breaking news or event. Bitcoin is now hovering around levels of $40,000, after rising above $42,000 yesterday. Altcoins charted some impressive gains in the past few days, but most have turned slightly to the red numbers. The crypto market cap is relatively calm and is moving around $1.9 trillion.
Stock and commodity markets: Securities trading will start on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Monday. This will be the first time since February 25th. As a result of the war in Ukraine and related sanctions, bonds of both the Russian government and Russian companies are under considerable pressure. Shares of Russian companies could fall even by more than fifty percent. That could cause further shakes on other stock markets and lead investors to more secure assets, such as gold. Prices of gold reported a slight correction last week. The price of oil is rising at the start of the new week following reports that Europe is considering an end to imports from Russia. A decision could come this week and the measure could be implemented as part of a fifth sanctions package against Russia. Apart from the events in Ukraine, the main driver is also the IEA’s call to reduce the overall level of oil demand.
Fundaments and important events: This week, one of the main global events will remain the uncertain situation between Ukraine – Russia. US President Biden will have a call with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy later today. They will discuss the situation in Europe. In addition, Fed Governor Powell will speak at the National Association for Business Economics. A speech from ECBs governor is expected today as well and series of speeches of central bank governors will continue this week with BoE, Fed and Swiss central bank, where the main topic is expected to be the rising inflation. This week will also present several important macro data from the EU, Great Britain and USA.
Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 12
BTC / USD
BTC behaved exactly as we expected. The fakeout, the subsequent retest of the lower part of the channel and the subsequent bullish signal in the form of one key candle proved to be a good sign for BTC’s move to the 42k level. BTC broke above both 55EMA and 200EMA. There was also a golden cross and a retest of 55EMA in the last 2 days. The retracement to 0.382 and that we are back above RSI 50 also suggests what could happen next. Local bullish sentiment could take us to the $44500 level and then to the absolute key price of $45850. Breaking the first barrier of $42405 could be a good start. If we break $45850, that could get us to the $50k mark for BTC. Now, let’s see what could thwart us. We wouldn’t want to see BTC fall now and close the 4H candle below the $40300 price. We’d rather not even consider a close below 39k. That would signal the start of a more significant decline.
ETH / USD
ETH, like BTC, fully fulfills our scenario. We have broken $2610 and slowly but surely ETH is gaining strength. After the golden cross, ETH is above both 50 and 200EMA. Another positive signal is the breaking and testing of the trend line. However, this move needs to be confirmed by breaking the $2995 price level. The next barrier on the way to the middle of the channel is the price of $3040. As mentioned in the previous analysis every $100 or so there is a surprise waiting for us in the form of resistance. The decision box is around $3,100 per ETH, where the final decision will be whether we continue to consolidate or head towards the top of the channel. Specifically, $3,286 per ETH is our key price for the next move up. In order for this bullish plan to come to fruition, we must now not close below $2750 per ETH.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.