Week 08 – News and markets

financial reserve, auctions, news

Fundamentals and expected events: week 08

Crypto markets: The price of Bitcoin and other altcoins is weakening mainly due to the ongoing uncertainty in the markets caused by a combination of geopolitical reasons related to the threat of war in Ukraine and the expected increase in US interest rates. Bitcoin has achieved a strong correlation with US stock indices in recent months, particularly the NASDAQ technology index. However that is not the case of PlatonCoin as it added 1%.

Stock and commodity markets: The major US stock indices, DOW Jones, NASDAQ and S&P 500, closed again lower on Friday. All three indices are approaching their lows recorded in January this year. Escalating tensions in Western Europe have become another factor in the decline of risk assets. Despite the escalation of the conflict, gold ended Friday’s session with a slight decline. The main reason for the decline in the yellow asset is profit taking by investors. Many traders decided not to miss a profitable opportunity.

Important events: The markets are awaiting comments from Fed members on the situation and on the development of rates. Yesterday, St. Louis Fed chief Bullard repeatedly called for a speedy intervention in rates before the overall situation around inflation gets out of control. A possible Biden-Putin summit is being debated and if it happens, it will be closely followed. Today we will know the February European PMI indexes, followed by the US numbers tomorrow. In both cases, a slight improvement in the services sector index is expected as the omicron situation improved during February. The indices in the industrial sector should then remain roughly flat. Problems in supply chains are still continuing to hinder the economics and continuing protests of truck drivers is starting to develop into shortages of some goods.

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Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 08

BTC / USD

Both the sell and buy boxes from the chart that we have predicted are fulfilling. We closed below $41,600 and that set up a larger correction of POC support at the $38k level. Our buy box is filled and now we can only wait for a move towards our sell box at the $51k BTC level. Along the way we have some massive resistances at $41.8k, $43.5k and $46 per BTC. Considering how intense the move to 38k was, that move is still not complete. The bottom for this move may be as low as $34k per BTC. There is monthly support at 35k, so a wick at 34k is likely if we get to 35k. A very likely bounce is already at 36k. On a move up, the first thing we need to do is break the Key TL. The way to look higher is through a close above $41700 with no wicks hitting the 200EMA. A scenario where we look to $41700 and then back to the key low is also likely, which we could bounce significantly higher. The Super Key TL is our breakout point for BTC above $45800.

TA BTC

ETH / USD

ETH got through the tiebreaker box to a $190 plus. However, the move was very steep and appeared to be more of a fakeout than the price continuing to rise further. In the space of one week we were able to experience two death crosses and two golden crosses. This speaks volumes about the indecisiveness of the market. The overall structure of the ETH price over the past few days does not look very optimistic. The only positive thing now is that we have stopped exactly at the support level of 2800 and 2600. A precise retest of the price TL suggests that ETH could surprise us. In case we close above 50 and 200EMA, the Decision box ($3100) will decide a higher rise in price.

TAK ETH

 

Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.

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