Fundamentals and expected events: week 07
Crypto markets: The hashrate of Bitcoin’s network’s reached a new all-time high. According to Glassnode, it jumped to 248.11 million terahashes per second this Saturday, which represents an increase of more than 200% since June 2021 and infamous mining ban in China. However, cryptomarkets are still moving sideways as if waiting with the rest of the world to see, how will the situation between United States and Russia develop.
Stock and commodity markets: European stock markets dropped significantly amid growing fears of a possible military conflict in Ukraine as well as concerns about the negative impact of high inflation. As for United States, classic indices are heading rather slightly into the negatives, but the Nasdaq technology index is already slightly in the pluses. The whole market situation is greatly complicated by the huge amounts of funds that are waiting for virtually any market correction to come back into play. Oil has been so far moving in a fairly wide range of $96 to $94 per barrel of Brent. Despite a strengthening dollar, gold has continued to rise due to its nature as a major store of value in a period of uncertainty and heightened levels of general risk, as well as in a period of expected rising inflation.
Important events: According to diplomatic sources, the U.S. was prepared to intervene on Wednesday in Ukraine with the use of military force. However, as per the latest agency reports at the time of the writing, the Russian defence minister has reportedly informed the Kremlin about the termination of part of the military exercises held near the border with Ukraine. These news were not oficially confirmed yet. As for the Czech republic, the inflation rate was announced today and consumer prices rose by almost 10% compared to January last year. This is the highest since July 1998. Inflation rate for January will be also announced this week from United States and other countries and with that on mind markets will be waiting for speeches of central bank representatives. A meeting of G20 countries will take place this week too.
Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 07
BTC / USD
Last week’s analysis came true and BTC got as high as the predicted $45700 level, specifically up to $45860. Our buy box didn’t come true, but those who regularly follow our analysis had bought as early as $38600 and were taking an 18% profit on the spot. Currently, the price has been consolidating just above 200EMA for two days. In the given situation from a macro perspective we are still forming higher highs and higher lows. So we should be bullish. Only a breakout and $28600 can change the macro perspective. From the other side, we closed the weekly candle very bearish. Which may have been an afterthought to accumulate as much shorts as possible, scoop up liquidity and we could move up through liquidations. How to proceed now? We need to close one 4H candle above $42380 without a wick below this price level and the possibility of us looking higher will increase greatly. Big resistance is waiting for us from $43600. Current massive support is POC $38460 and next after breaking the $36850 daily level. A close below the $41600 4H candle may set up a move to these supports.
ETH / USD
ETH broke the support formed by both EMA 50 and 200. And this soon after the golden cross. Now we are also after the death cross and that sounds pretty wild. The death cross came about 50 hours after the golden cross. At first glance, it looks like there is a lot of downward pressure on the price. There is another bullish alternative here, where the bigger players in the market try to squeeze out retail with an apparent bearish move, so that the weaker players don’t hold their nerve and sell what’s left or enter a short, giving the big ones liquidity for the next move up. Let’s make it all easier. $2800 is now major support for ETH, a break and close below it means we look even lower, $2600 the next stop. A close above $3000 next move up. A break of the key RSI TLs up or down will be the first signal. Which is already happening in the direction of the move up. So we’ll see. The SL set is now the key.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.