Week 06 – News and markets

token, scam, daily, week 06

Fundamentals and expected events: week 06

Crypto markets: All major cryptocurrencies lost nearly 20% in the month of January. For February, however, Bitcoin has already risen by almost 8% and Ethereum has gained almost 12%. The rationale for the current growth may be due to developments in technology sector and investors thus looking for a hedge against inflation. The new macro data could thus also contribute to the volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Stock and commodity markets: The start of February brought increased volatility to the stock markets caused by extreme price fluctuations of technology giants Alphabet, Facebook and Amazon. Major overseas benchmarks were under pressure from last quarter’s earnings reports and analyst outlooks. The bets on rising geopolitical tensions are significant in light of the current rise in oil prices. It has crossed the USD 90 per barrel mark for the first time since 2014.

Important events: Besides the still pending geopolitical tension around situation with Ukraine and Russia, markets will be waiting for ECB’s Christina Lagarde’s speech, information about the economic outlook of the EU and for results of state bond auctions in the U.S. and other countries as well. Next up will be US inflation, which seems to have continued to rise beyond the seven per cent mark in January, followed by German inflation. Gradually, the bigger picture will show for the euro area, where, according to a preliminary estimate, inflation figures certainly did not improve. However, the focus will not only be on the inflation results for January, but also on the industrial production results for December and how well the sector is coping with extreme input prices and shortages of some components.

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Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 06

The total crypto market capitalization reached 2,056 trillion USD.

Bitcoin’s price is currently 42,802USD.

Crypto Fear and Greed index is 45, still meaning fear.

BTC / USD

The positive turn has come and BTC has arrived in our Decision box. This can no longer be overlooked as a temporary move. This move may mark the start of a swing move. We are looking at a correction out of the Decision box today through tomorrow. We are above the TL, 50EMA, 200EMA on the 4H TF as well as 21EMA on the 1D TF. The larger and more prolonged the move up occurs, the more challenging it is to return to lower price levels. So when someone wants to move the price properly, it is important that the movement is unstoppable in the first phase. And so far that is happening, even as volume is falling. Volume indicates how many players in the market are participating in a given move, or in what volume. Often times, low trading volume can indicate a false move. The entire current move is very steep, so a corrective move should occur very soon. The buy zone is indicated and the upcoming golden cross is also a very strong confluence. After the bearish divergence on 15min. TF a very quick RSI reset and BTC is poised for another move up. If price holds, the next stop is at $45300 – $45700 for BTC.

TA BTC

ETH / USD

ETH fulfils our scenario almost perfectly. ETH bounced like a rocket at Decision Point and has now arrived in our Sell Zone box. We are currently above 50EMA and 200EMA on the 4H TF. And ETH appears to be untenable. The only thing that can hold us back now is the bearish divergence on the 4H TF. Bearish divergence at 15 min. TF has almost been reset on the RSI side, so we are due for another move up. So the resistance we are in now is very strong and as well as preventing the move up, it could turn into very strong support. For those of you who remember our analysis on the weekly TF, we are right where we should be:

TA ETH

All that matters now is whether we will historically have one more opportunity to buy ETH below the $2,100 threshold. At the moment, everything is shaping up more for a move up to the $3350 price of ETH. Our last chance for such a low buy is a failure to break and hold the price above $3350 and move again to the bottom of the channel. The golden cross is coming and if a short-term correction, it will be to the $2880 per ETH level.

Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.

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