Welcome to our weekly brief. Here you will find an overview of main events and news from last week and expected events for week 05.
Fundamentals and expected events: week 05
Crypto markets: Bitcoin is currently under selling pressure, having plunged as low as $35,000 late last week and over the weekend. However, it oscillated around 40k to 42.5k for a longer period of time before it began to lose ground following the US stock market plunge. After failing to gain back the level of $38,000 this weekend, Bitcoin went down again and lost around $1,000 in hours. Alternative coins were in an even worse loss today, with massive price slides from Solana, Ripple, Polkadot, Terra, and others. However in the afternoon the crypto markets regained some ground and now the crypto market cap is slightly above $1.8 trillion.
Stock and commodity markets: European stock markets are rising slightly. Investors are mainly watching corporate earnings reports, developments around Ukraine and looking ahead to key macroeconomic data, especially inflation data in the euro area. Technology and payment platforms are doing well, while mining and materials processing are not doing so well. In macroeconomic news, news of a further slowdown in the manufacturing sector in China is having an impact, with Eurozone GDP growing in line with estimates by 0.3% and 4.60 y/y in 4Q last year. January as a whole is poised to become the worst month in the US since the pandemic began in spring 2020 with losses of 7% for the broader S&P 500 and 12% for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Oil waits near the $90 per barrel Brent mark. Gold waits around $1,790 per troy ounce.
Important events: The development will primarily be determined by events around Ukraine. Earnings results will be revealed in the next two weeks by most S&P 500 corporations. This week will be lively in this regard starting on Tuesday, when the giant Google or Alphabet, Alibaba, Advanced Micro Devices, Gilead Sciences, General Motors and United Parcel Service, among others, will present their results. There will be also many important macro data reported from the U.S. and other countries.
Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 05
The total crypto market capitalization reached 1,832 trillion USD.
Bitcoin’s price is currently 38,534USD.
Crypto Fear and Greed index is 20, extreme fear.
BTC / USD
Today is a big day for BTC. We are closing the monthly candle. But let’s keep it simple. Today, BTC made its first major move that could mark a positive reversal. A scenario where BTC looks to the $30k mark is still more likely. BTC now needs to break the main trendline, but that is preceded by a C&H formation (42k target) that could take BTC up through the trendline. The consolidation has been long enough and we are now above the 50 and 200 EMAs. If you break, break today. Hope for BTC fans ahead of another possible deeper correction. We shall see. Today, BTC is behaving in such a way that it is very keen to close the monthly candle at about $41,500, which is above the major support trendline. The decisive moment will come at $41700, where BTC will have to decide if another deeper correction is coming or if we are in for a proper ride.
ETH / USD
ETH reacted almost to the dollar at the exact point of interest (POC). ETH needs to break $2730 for the bearish divergence on the 4H TF to stop affecting the price and we could get to the next resistance at $2830 for ETH. The move above 50EMA was very steep and most likely there will be an even smaller correction to $2570. If ETH were to put this move into full force, $3240 is the next massive resistance. In terms of the correction ETH has been through in recent months, ETH needs more time for another significant move to follow above $3240. So even if we get to $3200 we should expect another significant correction.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.