Welcome to our weekly brief. Here you will find an overview of main events and news from last week and expected events for week 03.
Fundamentals and expected events: week 03
Crypto markets: After another unsuccessful attempt to overcome $44,000, Bitcoin retraced once more and dipped below $43,000. Most altcoins are also in the red on a daily scale, while Cardano continues to chart impressive gains following a double-digit surge. Despite a minor decline since yesterday, the crypto market cap has remained above $2 trillion.
Stock and commodity markets: Investors are looking for reasons to stay put ahead of an expected rate hike by the US Fed in March. European stock markets rose supported by better than expected macro data from China. The market is also watching the last year’s 4Q results. Crude oil held its position. Gold mainly followed the dollar.
Important events: World Bank analysts have downgraded their outlook for global growth this year and next. Global GDP is expected to grow by 4.1% this year and 3.2% next year. The analysts estimate that global growth will reach 5.5% in 2021. The main reason for the downgrade in the outlook is that more and more countries are starting to talk and think about reducing their previously unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. Also working negatively will be the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. The ECB is due to release the minutes of its December meeting on Thursday amid an ongoing debate over how best to counter rising price pressures in the eurozone. The CNB expects January inflation to be around 9%, but it cannot be ruled out that it could surprise significantly. Further significant monetary tightening may be needed. Moreover, the Czech economy is due for a significant shock this year. In addition to the problems of the car industry, the negative impact of high energy prices could be very pronounced. Moreover, fiscal policy is also starting to tighten. On top of this, the CNB is raising rates significantly, which will have a negative impact on business investment.
Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 03
The total crypto market capitalization reached 2,139 trillion USD.
Bitcoin’s price is currently 42,430 USD.
Crypto Fear and Greed index is 22, extreme fear.
A quick breakout of our trendline and an exact retest of the aforementioned zone (in week 49) of $39.5k per BTC, which forms the boundary between bear and bullish markets. We also respect the major trendline, which has been stretching since October 18, 2020. We would certainly not want to close below the major trendline on a daily candle. Fortunately, a nice bounce and the expected and predicted by us retest of $44k for BTC. We are now hovering just around 50EMA. We’re certainly not super bullish, but at least partial optimism for now. The 41.6k retest (Buy BOX) is still open. A break of the Key RSI TL could mean more than just a local correction. We clearly need to stay above RSI 50 and that will take us above the 50EMA and the path to $46k per BTC (Target Profit BOX) will open up.
DOGE / USD
So we are finally there. Doge has been on an incredible show the last few days. He broke the aforementioned RSI TL and 50EMA and what’s more with a massive endulfing candle in the 20% range. Wooow… I guess no one expected that. Within 3 days, the DOGE scored an increase of almost 40%. At lightning speed it was above both 50 and 200EMA. Here you can see that DOGE is a force to be reckoned with and a good one to have in your portfolio. What now? We are above 50 and 200EMA and slowly approaching the Golden Cross. Staying above the RSI 50 now is the key to further interesting moves. The most formidable resistance is around 0.193. The key and massive support is now the 200EMA at $0.17 per DOGE.
ETH / USD
The $2700 level where massive support for ETH was located now looks out of sight. The price has not even come close to it and has already bounced at plus or minus $3k. Thanks to ETH, it still feels like the aforementioned $2,700 price is acting as a magnet and also forms the interface between a bull or bear market. The buy box has been filled, but there is still a chance that the price will return to the buy box. Since most of the market sees the same thing, the probability decreases. Now ETH is just above the 50EMA and with the BTC move, ETH could also test the 200EMA and the $3600 price level for ETH. The RSI TLs speak for everything. Down correction $2700-3000, up $3600 for ETH.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.