Welcome to our weekly brief. Here you will find an overview of main events and news from last week and expected events for week 01.
Fundamentals and expected events: week 01
Crypto markets: Continued money printing by central banks, which has helped kick-start long-unprecedented inflation, has also boosted new class of assets – cryptocurrencies – to continue their strong growth. Bitcoin reached new records at $68,800, but by the start of 2022 it was trading at just $47,100. PlatonCoin’s price has averaged $0.50 on a daily basis throughout the year, compared to last year when the average price on a daily basis throughout the year was $0.30. As for the beginning of the year most larger-cap altcoins have mimicked BTC’s performance lately. Ethereum is just slightly up on a daily scale, and the second-largest crypto was able to reclaim $3,800. The crypto market cap is up by around $40 billion in a day to approximately $2.370 trillion.
Stock and commodity markets: Stocks on Wall Street registered slight losses (-0.26%) at the end of the year, but overall the indices recorded their fifth consecutive month of growth. For 2021, the main S&P 500 index then managed to add a solid 27% and managed to set 70 new all-time highs, the second highest number in trading history. Among sectors, energy and real estate gained more than 40%, while financials and technology rose more than 30%.Trading of Chinese property giant Evergrande shares on the Hong Kong stock exchange was suspended again today. The exact reason for the move is not yet known. Oil recorded its highest performance (+57%) since 2009. The OPEC, which reaffirmed its decision to increase oil production in 2022 at its previous meeting, will meet on Tuesday. The cartel said it expects the Omicron variant to have a low impact on oil demand. While gold reached an all-time high the year before last, when it was priced close to USD 2,100, the price reached less than USD 1,700 in 2021, eventually ending the year less than 4% lower. Silver and platinum both ended the year with double-digit losses.
Important events: Year 2022 will start with a set of macro data for December that could indicate the setting in which the global economy will enter a year of monetary tightening. The tightening of central bank policies comes at a time when global economies are beginning to worry about the potential impact of the new Covid-19 Omicron variant on the global economy and its revitalization. U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to speak by phone again this Thursday about the growing tensions on the Ukraine-Russia border. This is the second call in three weeks. In this follow-up, US and Russian officials will also meet next Monday, 10 January, in Geneva. Here, the first round of security talks will take place around the current situation, which is increasing geopolitical instability and could affect global financial markets, as well as European energy prices and cause possible domino effects in the food supply chain.
Cryptomarkets and marketcap: week 01
The total crypto market capitalization reached 2,373 trillion USD.
Bitcoin’s price is currently 47,119 USD.
Crypto Fear and Greed index is 29, fear.
The big players are doing a lot of magic with the price now. They don’t want to miss the last of what they call “weak hands”. We broke the RSI TL in confluence with the 50EMA and a local correction was on the way. This consolidation may strengthen BTC, but any further test of the $45590 price level will result in a deeper drop to $40k. The way BTC is holding just below the 50EMA and just below the RSI 50 is a good signal. We are currently testing the KEY RSI TL. A break will result in nice momentum as it will also mean a break of the 50EMA. Given how manipulative but on the other hand very legible BTC is now, we have a very good opportunity to ride the wave.
DOGE / USD
The Doge reacted to the break of the RSI TL as well as BTC with a local correction to the $0.1650 level, where a bounce occurred due to the confluence of the Key TL and the bullish divergence. However, we have to say that the price did not react in any significant way, but the RSI did and with a more significant reset to the Golden zone, which is not exactly a positive signal. The RSI has reset more than the price and so we can expect another price correction. Despite all that, we are so close to the 50EMA and the RSI TL breakout, so it doesn’t look entirely optimistic. The first positive signal would be a break of the RSI TL and 50EMA. Currently no engulfing or pinbar candle is knocking on our door. Arm yourself with patience, because patiently watching and waiting for the right opportunity is the best thing you can do right now.
ETH / USD
Interplay of price and RSI TL and an accurate signal to enter the short. It doesn’t look entirely optimistic for ETH either. And the whole structure suggests another correction. You really don’t want to see engulfing on resistance at 50EMA on a 4H TF. Let’s see how far this correction can reach. The dashed RSI Support and Main RSI TL meet at the point where we will most likely decide where we go next. I expect a more dynamic bounce as well given the still declining trading volume. This bounce will be so massive that it will take us to the top of the Channel. The important thing is that we break $4100 along the way without much complication.
Disclaimer: This is not an offer for concluding a contract. Trading cryptocurrencies is a highly risky business and as such you are the only person bearing the risk and responsible for your own decisions. Do not engage in trading unless you do your own research and are fully knowledgeable of the risks.